Will ROSÉ’s ‘Rosie’ Beat Taylor Swift’s ‘Tortured Poets’ to No. 1?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 21, 2024, we look at Taylor Swift’s recently resumed reign on the chart, and whether the solo bow of a K-pop star can challenge it.  

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Since late August, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department album has been stuck at 15 weeks at No. 1 – still the longest run of both Swift’s career and of any 2024 album. But now, its reign has resumed, thanks in large part to the physical release of the album’s 31-track Anthology edition – which had never been previously available for purchase besides in digital form – as a Target in-store exclusive on both CD and vinyl, with four additional bonus tracks (which had previously been released in other alternative versions of the album).  

The album sold 368,000 copies last tracking week (ending Dec. 5) – split nearly evenly between CD and vinyl purchases – and moved 405,000 units overall, according to Luminate. That was good not only for the biggest single-week number posted by an album since Poets itself moved 439,000 in its second week of release, but also a bigger number than any non-Swift artist has managed in 2024 outside of Beyoncé, whose Cowboy Carter debuted with 407,000 units in April.  

That number probably won’t be as sizeable this week, but the drop off might not be as steep as some other albums that get big post-release bumps from physical drops. Swift also released Poets for order from Target.com shortly after the in-store release, with those copies impacting this current tracking week (and thus next week’s Billboard 200). So don’t be surprised if the album sells well into the six digits again this week – and perhaps gets Swift to a 17th week at No. 1 for Poets, moving it just two weeks shy of Morgan Wallen’s 2020s-best 19 weeks at No. 1 with 2023’s One Thing at a Time.  

ROSÉ, Rosie (The Black Label/Atlantic): One of the year’s most-anticipated solo debuts comes from BLACKPINK breakout star ROSÉ, with her first official solo LP Rosie. The set obviously comes pre-blessed with a true breakout hit in the Bruno Mars collab “APT.,” which debuted at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 – a higher peak than ROSÉ had previously reached, with or without her superstar group – and has also topped the Global 200 for seven weeks and counting.  

Mars is the only featured artist on the album’s 12-song tracklist, but the writer and producer credits are littered with recognizable names: Amy Allen, Cirkuit, Rock City, Sarah Aarons, D’Mile, Omer Fedi, Emily Warren and Greg Kurstin all among them. Mars himself even shows up a second time, as a co-writer on “Number One Girl,” the album’s lead track and second single. Everything points to the album being a big priority for her Atlantic label, and a set likely to launch ROSÉ to true solo stardom.  

A No. 1 bow on the Billboard 200 may be a tougher ask, however, with Swift’s blockbuster album still doing the kind of numbers it is. Nonetheless, ROSÉ is expected to stream well – helped in no small part by “APT.,” which is still in the top 20 of the Streaming Songs chart even following an avalanche of Christmas classics and new Kendrick Lamar songs taking over the listing – and sell in robust numbers, with more than 15 different physical variants of the album made available across CD and vinyl, all coming with collectibles, some of which are randomized. (There’s also a digital edition on her webstore with an exclusive live version of “Number One Girl.”)  

Sabrina Carpenter, Fruitcake (Island): Have you watched A Nonsense Christmas With Sabrina Carpenter yet on Netflix? If so, and if you’re still in the (slightly naughty) festive spirit afterwards, you might do well to revisit Carpenter’s Fruitcake EP, released in late 2023 — which included a holiday-themed spin on her breakout hit “Nonsense” new originals like “Santa Doesn’t Know You Like I Do” and “Cindy Lou Who” and even a version of the Irving Berlin perennial “White Christmas” (cheekily stylized “White Xmas”).  

And more good news for you there: Fruitcake was also finally given wide physical release on Friday, with the album being issued on CD, cassette and vinyl – with three different variants of the latter, including a Target exclusive. (Previously, the set was only available in one color of vinyl on her webstore.) The “Queen of Christmas” title may already be spoken for by the artist currently claiming the Hot 100’s top spot, but perhaps room can be made for a new Princess.  

TWICE, STRATEGY (JYP Entertainment): Star K-pop nonet TWICE has already topped the Billboard 200 once this year with March’s With YOU-th – though it’ll be a tougher mountain to climb in this packed week for the group’s seven-track latest STRATEGY. Nonetheless, the set – which features a guest verse from U.S. rap superstar Megan Thee Stallion on its title-track opener — should sell very well, with help from 15 different physical variants of the album across CD and vinyl formats. There are also a number of digital album variants available with “voice memo” bonus tracks exclusive to the group’s webstore.