Will Netanyahu Incite a War with Iran? Leaked U.S. Docs Detail Israel’s Attack Plans

AMY GOODMAN: The Biden administration has launched a probe after highly classified U.S. intelligence documents were posted online showing Israel is taking steps to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran. One document came from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the other from the NSA, the National Security Agency. The documents reference recent Israeli drills involving air-launched ballistic missiles, as well as covert drone activity. On Friday, President Biden was asked if he knew how and when Israel would attack Iran. Biden responded by saying “yes and yes,” unquote.

Iran has issued a complaint with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog over Israeli threats to strike Iran’s atomic energy sites in retaliation for a series of Iranian missiles that were fired into Israel earlier this month. Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement today saying, quote, “Threats to attack nuclear sites are against U.N. resolutions … and are condemned,” unquote.

This comes as a drone hit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s seaside home Saturday in the northern Israeli town of Caesarea. Netanyahu and his family were not home at the time of the incident, which caused superficial damage to his home. He shared this video on social media after the attack.

AIDE: Prime Minister, how is it going?

PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: Well, two days ago, we took out Yahya Sinwar, the terrorist mastermind whose goons beheaded our men, raped our women, burned babies alive. We took him out. And we’re continuing our battle with Iran’s other terrorist proxies. We’re going to win this war.

AIDE: So, will something deter you?

PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: No.

AMY GOODMAN: That was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking to his aide. The prime minister also wrote on social media, quote, “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake. … I say to Iran and its proxies in its axis of evil: Anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price,” Netanyahu said.

For more, we go to Tehran, to Iran, where we’re joined by Hassan Ahmadian, assistant professor of West Asian and North African studies at the University of Tehran.

Professor, we welcome you to Democracy Now! If you can start off by responding to what Netanyahu said, blaming agents of Iran for the attack, though Iran disavowed responsibility for the attack on his seaside home? We may have lost professor Ahmadian. I think he’s coming back right now. Why don’t we break, and we’ll see if we can get back in touch with professor Ahmadian, who is in Tehran, Iran. I think we have him. Professor Ahmadian, thank you for joining us. Can you respond to what Netanyahu said, that agents of Iran were responsible for the attack on his seaside home? If you can respond?

HASSAN AHMADIAN: Yes. Well, I think Bibi Netanyahu has been trying to portray everything that’s happening in Gaza, in Lebanon, around the region as part of Iran’s act, whereas we all know it’s a fact now that Iran didn’t know about the 7th of October attack. And then, its allies fighting Israel for their various national reasons, they are supported by Iran, but it doesn’t mean that they act on behalf of Iran.

But obviously, Bibi is eying another game. He wants to see a confrontation bigger than his surrounding. He wants the U.S., Iran to be dragged into a conflict, I think. That’s why he’s pointing always to Iran. In the beginning of his campaign on Gaza, he was focused on Gaza. And then, when he wanted to widen the war, he started to point at Iran, and he started hitting Iranian targets. First came the Iranian Consulate. Then Iran retaliated. Then came the assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh in the inauguration day of a new president in Iran.

Then Iran waited for a diplomatic settlement that Amos Hochstein and the Americans channeled to Iran that they are after, and they were using this assassination for a ceasefire there. The Iranians waited for two months, only to be surprised by Netanyahu moving to Lebanon, assassinating and — the pager attack, the walkie-talkie attack, then the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. All of this came after Iran waited for a diplomatic settlement in Gaza. And then Iran decided that “That’s enough. We need to retaliate; otherwise, our deterrence will be at stake.”

Obviously, to my understanding, Netanyahu is inching closer to, you know, a confrontation with Iran. The Iranians have said time and time again that they would retaliate. They have been retaliating. Now he’s talking about retaliating against Iran’s retaliation, which is basically escalation ladder he’s on, and he’s trying to tell the world that it’s Iran that is the provocateur, whereas in Iran, everyone feels the way that Bibi Netanyahu is trying to frame Iran internationally, and, as such, they are focusing on telling the world that we will not go for a war, we will not go for a confrontation, but if it’s enforced upon us, we will have to retaliate; otherwise, our deterrence will not work, and then it will be an open season in Tehran maybe.

AMY GOODMAN: So, Professor, can you comment on these leaked U.S. documents, intelligence documents, describing satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike in Iran? You also have the Foreign Ministry coming out today in Tehran, speaking out and saying it would be illegal to attack nuclear plants in Iran, according to the United Nations. If you can comment on all of this? The intelligence documents, not clear how they were leaked, coming from, among other places, the NSA, the National Security Agency, the intelligence agency in the United States that’s many times larger than the CIA.

HASSAN AHMADIAN: You know, we still don’t know the intricacies of these leaks. But, obviously, if they are intentional or not intentional, the leaking, it makes a different — I mean, the messaging or the message of them being linked will be different. But in any case, I think the Iranians are saying that these leaks show that the Israelis are trying to attack places of strategic importance that are legally — you know, should not to be attacked, but Israel is obviously trying or inching closer to attack them. It’s within the Iranian, you know, international or diplomatic reach, which the foreign minister and the president have been on the past few weeks telling the world that we don’t want escalation, but, obviously, the Israelis are coming to force it upon us, and we will have to retaliate.

The legality of the issue is obvious. I mean, it’s illegal, as per international law, to attack the atomic energy agency structure. It’s very obvious that it’s not legal to attack such places. But, I mean, the Israeli policy in assassinating scientists, killing a guest in an inauguration day in Iran, all the policies that have been pulled off previously were illegal, as well. So, the Iranians know that this is not going to affect the situation, but they are telling the world, “These are the evidence. We are not after this escalation, but you should look at Israel and what it’s doing to provoke Iran and its allies to retaliate.”

AMY GOODMAN: Professor Ahmadian, can you talk very briefly about Iran-Saudi relations and how that plays into this? Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Riyadh earlier this month. And the fact that the 180 ballistic missiles that were shot into Israel killed one person, a Palestinian in Jericho, but these were 180 ballistic missiles — is Iran actually coordinating this, sharing information with the United States?

HASSAN AHMADIAN: I’m not sure that is the case, especially the second attack that Iran — rather, retaliation that Iran did in October 1st. The first one was coordinated. Iran told the world and the United States, and indirectly Israel, as well, that we are not — we will attack in this timing. It was basically a political messaging that we can reach you, we can hit you, but we don’t want escalation, so don’t push us. The second attack, October 1st, was of a military nature. The Iranians showed their muscles, telling the Israelis, “You are playing with fire. We can do this.” Today, the message was that we can fire 7,000 missiles a day to deter Israel. But, basically, the narrative is that we don’t want escalation, but we are capable of fighting.

When it comes to Saudi Arabia and the GCC in general, the Iranians are trying hard to keep them away from, you know, basically assisting Israel and also keep the warming of the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia ongoing. The Iranians and the Saudis both have been pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza. The Saudis embarked on a diplomatic campaign with the Europeans, with the Americans for months now to stop the conflict in Gaza. The Iranians are trying to push, saying that we don’t want — that the Israelis are widening the war and this that will be catastrophe to the — I mean, it was a political messaging campaign and also pushing back against Israeli provocation, as the Iranians see them. Both have been, basically, met in the aim of stopping the Gaza war. And I think the relationship has been advancing unexpectedly. Basically, the war in Gaza have brought Iran and Saudi Arabia, at least publicly and in the narrative, much closer than where we were — when they were before the October 7th. And both, as I said, they are aiming for the same target — that is, the stop of the onslaught on Gaza and elsewhere in the region.

AMY GOODMAN: Hassan Ahmadian, I want to thank you for being with us, assistant professor of West Asian and North African studies at the University of Tehran, speaking to us from Tehran, Iran, previously associate with the Project on Shi’ism and Global Affairs at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.

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