Powerful winter storms that battered the UK in recent years were made more likely by an intense vortex of winds high above the Arctic, new research has revealed.
Scientists from the University of Leeds and the Met Office discovered a link between storm clusters and a stronger stratospheric polar vortex.
Their findings, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, could help forecasters predict dangerous storm clusters up to a month before they occur.
February 2022 was particularly stormy for the UK, with three named storms hitting within a single week – Dudley, Eunice and Franklin.
The 2022 storms wreaked havoc across the UK
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This marked the first time since the Met Office began naming impactful cyclones in 2015 that three named storms struck in such quick succession.
Storm Eunice was described as a once-in-a-decade event, with record wind gusts of 122 miles per hour recorded at the Needles on the Isle of Wight.
Four deaths were reported across the UK and Ireland, with power outages affecting one million homes.
The stratospheric polar vortex is a large spinning mass of cold air located about 15 miles above the Arctic during winter months.
February 2022 was characterised by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex.
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An image highlighting the impact of a Polar Vortex
Researchers compared seasonal forecasts showing the unusually strong vortex with those suggesting average strength.
Their analysis concluded that the strong polar vortex made it up to three times more likely that intense storms would affect the UK and northern Europe.
Lead author Dr Ryan Williams said: “Our research demonstrates the need to better understand the different drivers of the North Atlantic storm track, such as the state of the stratospheric polar vortex that is potentially predictable several weeks in advance.”
“Being able to provide early warnings of possible severe weather is all the more pertinent with climate change, as there is evidence that major winter storms will become more intense, exacerbating impacts such as flooding and wind damage.”
The researchers found that the signal for a strong polar vortex was evident in forecasts as early as November 2021.
The impact of the 2022 storms was devastating
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This offers a potential “window of opportunity” for enhanced predictability of storm risks.
Jeff Knight, Science Lead in Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office, said: “It’s been understood for a while that the Arctic stratosphere can affect the type of winter we get in the UK, but these results show that it can even affect the occurrence of stormy spells within the season.”
“An intense stratospheric polar vortex can now be recognised as a warning to forecasters of increased risks of damaging storms,” Knight added. “This was likely seen in the most recent winter, around the time of Storm Eowyn in late January.”
Professor Amanda Maycock, who led the project, noted: “The stormy conditions and strong stratospheric polar vortex during February 2022 bare parallels to other periods, such as what occurred in February 2020 and even what we have seen at the start of this year.”
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An image highlighting the impact of a Polar Vortex
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