In 2024, foreign-born workers accounted for all net job growth, while 43 million native-born Americans remain out of the workforce.
Workforce participation among native-born men has halved since 1960, with 22 percent now out of the labor force, up from 11 percent six decades ago.
The foreign-born workforce has surged by over 14 million since 1960, reaching a record 52 million under Biden.
Reliance on immigrant workers may mask declining native-born participation, with calls to reduce immigration to boost wages and reform welfare programs.
Policymakers face challenges balancing immigration with addressing factors driving native-born Americans out of the workforce, raising questions about long-term labor market trends.
The CIS’s report has revealed significant shifts in the U.S. labor market. The findings, based on data from 1960 to 2024, highlight a long-term decline in labor force participation among native-born Americans and a growing reliance on immigrant workers to sustain job growth.
As of April 2024, 43 million working-age Americans aged 16 to 64 are not employed, marking an increase of 8.5 million since 2000. The decline in workforce participation is particularly pronounced among native-born men, with the share of working-age men not in the labor force doubling from 11 percent in 1960 to 22 percent in 2024.
If the labor force participation rate for these men matched 1960 levels, there would be approximately nine million more men in the workforce today. Even among prime-age native-born men – typically considered the most employable demographic – the share of those not in the labor force has tripled from four percent in 1960 to 12 percent in 2024.
In contrast, foreign-born workers have seen consistent job growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while 1.1 million fewer native-born Americans are employed compared to last year, over 400,000 foreign-born workers have gained jobs.
U.S. labor market becoming increasingly reliant on migrant workers
The analysis underscores the growing role of immigration in the U.S. labor market. Since 1960, the number of foreign-born men in the workforce has increased by over 14 million.
Under President Joe Biden’s immigration policies, the foreign-born population has reached a record 52 million, or 15.5 percent of the U.S. population. Without reductions in immigration levels, this figure is projected to rise to 82.2 million by 2040, or more than 20 percent of the projected population of the U.S. by that decade.
Steven Camarota, CIS Director of Research, argues that reliance on immigrant workers has allowed the U.S. to overlook the declining labor force participation among native-born Americans. He suggests that reducing immigration could lead to higher wages, incentivize workforce participation and prompt reforms in welfare and disability programs.
While foreign-born workers have filled critical gaps in the labor market, the long-term decline in native-born workforce participation raises questions about the sustainability of current trends. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing immigration levels with efforts to address the underlying factors driving native-born Americans out of the workforce.
The analysis highlights a critical juncture for the U.S. labor market, with profound implications for economic and social policy. As the nation grapples with these challenges, the role of immigration in shaping the future of work remains a central issue for policymakers and stakeholders alike.
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