“A Perilous Moment” in Middle East: Iran Vows Revenge as Israel Expands Assassination Operations

NERMEEN SHAIKH: Israel has announced Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on July 13th that killed over a hundred people. Israel had accused Deif of orchestrating the October 7th attack. Deif had headed Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, since 2002.

Israel’s announcement came as thousands of people gathered in Tehran for the funeral procession of Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran early on Wednesday, just hours after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly in retaliation. Earlier today, Khamenei said it is, quote, “our duty to seek revenge for his blood as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Haniyeh’s assassination came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Hezbollah confirmed his death on Wednesday.

AMY GOODMAN: As fears grow of a broader regional war, we’re joined by Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group Iran Project, also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, co-author of the new book How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.

If you can start off — as we speak right now, the funeral for Ismail Haniyeh is going on in Tehran. He then will — his body will be taken to Qatar, where he will be buried. Ali Vaez, talk about the significance of what’s taken place over the last few days, with now Iran threatening to attack Israel because Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran.

ALI VAEZ: It’s good to be with you, Amy.

This is one of the most perilous moments in the region in years. Killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was a major embarrassment for Iranians, and I do believe that they are going to engage in a retaliation that is qualitatively different than what we saw back in April, when Iran and Israel had an exchange of fire. You remember, at the time, Israel conducted an attack against the Iranian Consulate in Damascus in which it killed several senior IRGC commanders, Revolutionary Guards commanders. Iran retaliated by firing more than 300 missiles and drones towards Israel, that were mostly shot down because that attack was highly calibrated and telegraphed well in advance. And that confrontation, tit for tat, did not result in an all-out, uncontrolled escalation.

But this time around, because this attack came on Iranian territory itself, targeting a high-level foreign official, on the day that the new Iranian president was inaugurated, and because it’s seen from the Iranians as part of a string of attacks in which Israel assassinated also a senior Hezbollah official in Beirut, and the U.S. also conducted, the same day, an operation against Iraqi Shia militias, it is seen from the Iranians as a coordinated joint Israeli-U.S. effort aimed at undermining Iran and its partners in the region, known as the Axis of Resistance. And so, I anticipate that what we will see is a axis-wide attack against U.S. and Israel in the region, which, as you can imagine, would be so much harder than what happened in April to contain and control. And if indeed there are casualties and fatalities on the Israeli or the U.S. side, this could easily spiral into a regionwide conflagration.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: So, Ali, let’s just begin with what you believe — how you believe Iran will respond, and then we can look at the other places where the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East is active. And explain who within Iran is likely to determine the response, the role, for instance, of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard in determining the response, rather than Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

ALI VAEZ: Let me start with the latter question, because it’s actually a peculiar time in Iran right now. There is literally no government. The president was inaugurated the day before yesterday, but he still hasn’t had the chance to get his Cabinet confirmed by the Parliament. So, he’s sitting in the Supreme National Security Council meetings, where Iran’s national security decisions are made, surrounded by officials of his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, as caretakers, and therefore, he doesn’t have a dominant voice in that room, because he still doesn’t have his people in the room. And there are not a lot of voices of restraint right now at that table. And the IRGC and the supreme leader are, for sure, going to have the upper hand in those deliberations.

But in any case, I believe that this Iranian response, which probably has already been made, as we’ve seen indications that there will be an attack, and the Pentagon has indicated that it might happen even in the next 72 hours, I don’t think it’s just an Iranian response. That’s what makes it different this time around. Usually — Iran had developed this network known as Axis of Resistance in order to itself not get involved into these kind of conflicts. It was always supposed to be proxy wars that would deter a direct attack on Iranian soil, without direct Iranian involvement. The April episode of confrontation between Iran and Israel changed that. But this will even take it one step further, because it will be the first time that Iran would join its partners and proxies in coordinated simultaneous attacks.

So, what I think is likely to happen is that we would see Iran firing missiles and drones towards Israel at the same time that Hezbollah will fire drones and missiles from Lebanon. We will see Shia militias in Iraq and Syria firing drones and missiles towards U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. We would see the Houthis also firing drones and missiles towards U.S. bases in the region and towards Israel. And that becomes so much more difficult to make sure that it might — it could be contained in the same way that it was in April. And, of course, from that point on, all bets are off. And unless the U.S. can hold Israel back from responding, especially in the case we have casualties, it would be officially the beginning of a regional war.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: And, Ali, if you could talk about what you think the impact of this is likely to be on ceasefire negotiations? As you mentioned, I mean, Haniyeh was one of the key negotiators in those ceasefire talks. What do you think the effect of this will be? I mean, some people have said that from the Israeli side, Netanyahu’s calculation may be that they can make more concessions, because they’ll be doing so from a position of strength, having carried out these assassinations. But what about from the side of Hamas?

ALI VAEZ: Well, I think that’s a pollyannaish view, to be honest with you. My sense is that by signing the order to kill Haniyeh, Prime Minister Netanyahu basically also ordered the killing of remaining Israeli hostages, unfortunately. It’s tragic, but the reality is that I don’t think there is any prospect for resumption of negotiations anytime soon.

First of all, Hamas does not want to do it, because as the perception that you mentioned exists, Hamas would be in a position of weakness. Its leader has been killed, the leader who was one of the key interlocutors in these negotiations. And as prime minister of Qatar, who’s an intermediary in these talks, mentioned yesterday, it makes no sense to kill your negotiating partner if you really want to reach an agreement.

And also, remember that from the perspective of much more hard-line Hamas leaders, like Yahya Sinwar, who’s now still operating in the tunnels, October 7th was all about trying to create a regional conflagration that would change the balance of power at the expense of Israel and in the interest of the Palestinians. He didn’t get what he wanted. Iran and its allies did not get involved into the conflict, although they demonstrated support for Hamas, but they were very cautious and demonstrated a degree of restraint not to fall into the trap of a regional war. So, I think at this stage Sinwar is as close to the regional war as he has wanted as ever, and therefore, it’s very unlikely that he would agree to a ceasefire anytime soon.

And all the mediators are also completely hopeless at this stage. And the U.S. has not been able to demonstrate the leadership that is required to turn things around and put pressure on Israel to bring this war to an end.

AMY GOODMAN: And, Ali Vaez, do you believe the U.S. knew about this attack before it happened? You have the Iranian ambassador to the U.N. saying that the assassination could not have occurred without the authorization and intelligence support of the U.S. Yet you have Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, saying this is something we were “not aware of or involved in.” Ali?

ALI VAEZ: Look, Amy, both scenarios are horrible. If the U.S. knew about it and didn’t stop it, it is disastrous for a superpower who cannot control, basically, a client state that is destabilizing the region in a way that it might actually put American lives in harm’s way. And the U.S. has said repeatedly from the beginning that it does not want to see the expansion of this conflict. So, if it knew about it and didn’t do anything about it, I think it’s really disastrous. If it didn’t know about it, it’s also disastrous, because, again, the U.S. has skin in the game here.

But I think that we’ve seen in the past, for instance, when Israel fired missiles into the Iranian Consulate in Damascus in April, we know that it gave just a minute’s heads-up to the U.S. before that operation was conducted. In this case, even if it was a short notice or not, it really does not matter. What matters is the perception of the other side. And again, because this was part of a string of attacks and Haniyeh’s killing was the culmination of a series of attacks that were conducted by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranians have the perception the U.S. was in the know. And therefore, we know already, as of this morning, that apparently there has been a green light that Iran has given to Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, who had stopped, to a large extent, the attacks on U.S. bases in the region after three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan back in February. So, I’m afraid this would just increase the temperature and would put Americans in harm’s way. And if the U.S. is unable to contain it further, then it would be a disaster for everyone.

AMY GOODMAN: And before we go, I wanted to bring Diana Buttu into the conversation, Palestinian human rights attorney, former adviser to the negotiating team of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Today she’s speaking to us from Canada. But I wanted to ask you about this latest news that Israel says they are confirming that they killed Mohammed Deif. If you can talk about the significance of this? They said they killed him on July 13th. In fact, that was the same day as the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. But the significance of this?

DIANA BUTTU: Look, what the Israelis have been doing, Amy, is that they’ve created a list of people that they want to assassinate. It’s what they call their deck of cards. And the fact that Israel continues to go into Gaza on day 300 and is carrying out a genocide in this place shows you that Israel is not at all interested in returning any of the Israelis. All that they’re interested in doing is making sure that Palestinians no longer have a place to live and that this genocide gets perpetuated. If this were really a case of them killing the top commanders of Hamas, then you would have seen that they would have ended the genocide a long time ago. But they’re not at all interested. And what they’re attempting to do is to make sure that the Gaza Strip is completely unlivable.

And that’s why it’s so important for the world to come in and say to Israel, “Enough is enough.” This is a monster that has been unleashed. And the fact that we don’t even see that there’s any real leadership internationally to rein in Israel just means that, as we’ve already heard, that this is going to will spread, and that’s precisely what Netanyahu wants.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: OK, we have 30 seconds, Diana. If you could say why you think Israel is carrying out these assassinations now? Why in these last 48 hours?

DIANA BUTTU: Because it can. It’s just as simple as that. You know, Israel has never been shown a red light to do anything other than carry out assassinations. And when we see that the world community is not putting the brakes on Israel, it’s going to continue to do what it wants to do, without any — without any red light, without ever paying a price.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, Diana Buttu, we want to ask you to stay with us, because we’re going to have a very important segment coming up, an exposé around Israel facing new accusations it’s been torturing Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Diana Buttu is a Palestinian human rights attorney, former adviser to the negotiating team of the Palestine Liberation Organization. And thanks also to Ali Vaez, with us from Washington, D.C. Ali Vaez is the director of International Crisis Group Iran Project, also adjunct professor of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Back in a minute.