Emboldened Beijing tests US
There is no doubt Beijing is seizing an opportunity here.
The recent hardening of both rhetoric and policy from Taiwan’s president provides an opening for China, not just to practise blockade scenarios and sow feelings of insecurity among Taiwanese, but crucially also to test the resolve of the island’s longstanding backer, the US.
It has been a nervous few months in Taipei as they’ve watched President Trump row back support for Ukraine.
An initial reluctance from the new administration to provide clear condemnation or pushback will have ultimately emboldened Beijing.
However, there have been a few hints in recent days that Washington may ultimately be coming back in behind Taiwan; the hardening of language in a few key statements, a visit by Alaska’s governor and the quiet release of $870m of previously frozen military aid, to name just a few.
Exactly where Trump stands on the Taiwan question is still unclear, he remains a volatile and transactional actor.
It is not impossible, for instance, that Taiwan’s future could be used as a bargaining chip within some future wide-reaching deal with China.
Today’s drills will serve as a test for all involved. Is US resolve indeed hardening, to what extent, and how publicly?
Either way, an intense period of cross-strait relations feels inevitable.
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